Karachi/Lahore:

Salma Faheem has not spoken to her husband Mohammad since June, when he left her and their three children in their home village Dalma in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) because he could no longer afford to keep them with him in Karachi. Could have picked up.

Now instead of living in a single room in an urban slum with water on tap and a gas-powered cooker, Salma has to walk an hour every day to fetch water and cook her family’s meals on a wood stove. “I hate it here,” she said over the phone. “I loved it in Karachi.”

Her husband Faheem, 33, is also not happy but feels she had no choice. “In the village, the house is ours so it is rent-free,” he said. “(But) I loved being around them. I miss my children,” said Faheem, who earns Rs 35,000 per month as a furniture handler, now unable to even afford food, rent and tuition.

Pakistan’s $350 billion economy is in recession due to low growth, weak currency and rising prices. This pain is being felt most by those living on low income in cities. Some people have decided that the only answer is to either abandon their families or send them back to their home villages, where living is cheaper.

Like other developing countries, Pakistan is heavily dependent on imports of oil, gas and other commodities, and has been hit hard by the Covid pandemic, the global recession following the war in Ukraine and floods last year that left a third of the country Has been submerged.

Higher fuel and energy prices pushed inflation to 31.4% year-on-year in September, up from 27.4% in August, and the new caretaker government, which took office in August, did little to rein in prices. Can do.

A $3 billion loan program approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last July averted a sovereign debt default, but reforms linked to the bailout, including the easing of import restrictions and calls for the removal of energy and fuel subsidies, have sent oil tumbling. . On the fire of inflation.

The economic crisis has been exacerbated by rising political tensions ahead of national elections in January. With no relief in sight, some people in this country of about 240 million are cutting costs in one way only: by going home to their villages.

“The decision to return to our hometown was not an easy one,” said Wasim Anwar, a water filter and sanitary fitting installer who moved with his wife and five children to the small dusty town of Chowk Marle, about four hours from Lahore. ” In May.

Anwar’s wages could no longer cover rent, utilities, medical expenses and tuition in the city. “Although there are work opportunities here [village] Anwar, who now works as a plumber, said, “While not being so abundant, my overheads have reduced by almost half… which has provided great relief.”

There is no immediate data available on the total number of people who have returned to villages in recent months, but researchers cite substantial anecdotal evidence based on dozens of interviews with so-called reverse migrants and their relatives.

One reason hard data is hard to come by is because the 2023 census operation means the labor force survey, usually conducted every two years by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), has been delayed indefinitely. , Executive Director Bilal Gilani said. Research firm Gallup Pakistan.

However, he said that other surveys have provided evidence of some population movements. “Rent avoidance [the] Families in cities avoid food costs by sending families back to the countryside or returning to villages where own-grown wheat, and meat and milk through owned livestock provide a cover.”

While the government has said it expects inflation to eventually ease, it warned that prices will remain high in November due to adjustments in energy tariffs and a large increase in fuel prices.

too little too late?

A Finance Ministry official said the government has launched a series of targeted social safety net programs aimed at income support, food assistance and health care. “We are fully committed to ensuring that the most vulnerable sections of our society are protected during these difficult times.”

Policy experts suggest that the government should support poor households in the short term by reducing taxes such as sales charges and introducing targeted subsidy systems, which could help reduce the fiscal deficit.

“If even a part of the untargeted subsidy for energy [among others] could be targeted, it would make a big difference,” said Haris Gazdar, director of the Karachi-based Collective for Social Science Research.

Gazdar said that although the recent trend of reverse migration will not have a major immediate economic impact, as workers will likely return to cities once the economy picks up, it could create “long-term” problems, e.g. For, many children will be taken out. Of schools.

He urged the government to learn from countries like neighboring India, where citizens can enroll for work like building roads, digging wells or building other rural infrastructure and earn minimum wage for at least 100 days every year. Can.

He also gave the example of the United States, where social security benefits are available if one is unemployed. “These are responsive systems that we don’t have yet and will need to work on,” Gazadar said.

All this may be too late for those who have already reached the financial limit, people like Anwar’s elder brother Muhammad Aslam, who lives in Lahore. “The increasing financial pressure has started troubling me,” said Aslam, who is also a plumber. He said his landlord owed three months’ rent.