The number of people living with diabetes worldwide will more than double to 1.3 billion by 2050, driven by structural racism and inequality between countries, new research predicted on Friday.

According to the most comprehensive analysis of global data, it is estimated that by 2050, every country in the world will see an increase in the number of chronic disease patients.

About 529 million people were already estimated to be living with diabetes, which is one of the top 10 causes of death and disability.

According to a study published in the journal Lancet, this number – of which 95 percent are type 2 diabetes cases – will grow to more than 1.3 billion in less than three decades.

High body mass index – a sign that people may be overweight – was linked to more than half the deaths and disability from diabetes.

Other factors included people’s diet, exercise, smoking and alcohol.

One factor was how diet had changed, said Lian Ong, principal research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and one of the study’s first authors.

“Over the course of 30 years, different countries have really migrated from traditional food habits – maybe eating more fruits and vegetables, healthier greens – to more highly processed foods,” she told AFP.

The research also predicts that by 2045, three quarters of adults with diabetes will live in low- and middle-income countries.

But even in wealthy countries like the United States, the rate of diabetes was about 1.5 times higher among minorities such as black, Hispanic, Asian or Native Americans, a separate Lancet study said.

Study co-author Leonard Agede, of the Medical College of Wisconsin, blamed “a cascade of widespread diabetes disparities.”

“Racist policies such as residential segregation affect where people live, their access to adequate and healthy food and health care services,” he said in a statement.

Ong said “the challenge is that we don’t really see a type of intervention that is going to fix everything”.

Instead, fighting diabetes will require long-term planning, investment and focused attention from countries around the world.

In an editorial, The Lancet stated that “the world has failed to understand the social nature of diabetes and has underestimated the true scale and danger of the disease.”

It states, “Diabetes will be the defining disease of this century.”