ANKARA: Following the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in late May, Turkish foreign policy is once again in the spotlight with the appointment of Hakan Fidan as the country’s new foreign minister.

As Turkey’s diplomatic leadership goes through a transition, observers are waiting to see what direction the country will take under Fidan’s direction.

It is generally believed that little will change, except that Turkey may take a more assertive stance with a focus on normalization efforts and on the institutionalization of a security-oriented foreign policy approach. Fidan’s doctoral studies focused on the role of intelligence in foreign policy. .

The 55-year-old minister is a highly influential figure in Turkey, having served as the country’s intelligence chief from 2010 to 2023, coordinating several reconciliation initiatives with Middle Eastern countries including Syria, Israel and Egypt.

Financing the current account deficit will remain a top priority, and this may prompt Turkey to pursue more positive relations with Western allies.

Ozgur Unluhisarciklianalyzer

Known for his negotiating skills, Fidan played a direct role in high-level meetings, demonstrating his ability to deal with complex geopolitical issues and understanding the intricacies of local dynamics in other countries.

Fidan met with the Syrian intelligence chief several times to lay the groundwork for political talks between Damascus and Ankara in 2022, suggesting that further steps may be taken to normalize relations with the Assad regime and address security concerns related to the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia. It is a Turkish party equal to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

In addition to his expertise in serious diplomacy, Fidan previously led the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency, the country’s international aid agency, to expand Turkey’s soft power through infrastructure and humanitarian assistance in the Balkans, the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.

His previous role as Turkey’s representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency also briefed him on the Iran nuclear negotiations.

Fidan’s appointment is widely interpreted as a signal of Ankara’s desire to take a more active role in regional and global affairs.

As foreign minister, Fidan will face the challenge of negotiating with Western powers on several thorny issues, including Sweden’s potential NATO membership and the delivery of F-16 fighter jets from the United States.

On Thursday, Fidan held talks in Brussels with Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s chief official. Ankara insists that Sweden must comply with recent legal amendments to the anti-terrorism law pushed by Turkey, which would allow Swedish authorities to prosecute individuals who support terrorist groups.

Sweden has taken some steps regarding legal changes and removal of defense industry restrictions imposed on Turkey. “These legal changes must now be put into practice,” Fidan said.

It remains unclear whether Washington would agree to sell the F-16s in return for Turkey agreeing to take Sweden up. Earlier this year, a bipartisan group of senators told US President Joe Biden that Congress should not consider selling until Turkey ratifies Sweden’s NATO membership.

According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Fidan is highly respected in Washington and in European capitals. “This is an advantage at the beginning of his tenure as foreign minister,” he told Arab News.

Fidan recently met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in London, where Blinken referred to him as “a colleague from many years ago.” The situation in Ukraine and NATO expansion topped the agenda during their meeting.

Experts do not expect any drastic changes in Turkey’s foreign policy, and they expect Fidan to prioritize continuity over major transformations.

First and foremost, Fidan is Erdogan’s foreign minister, as was (his predecessor Mevlut) Cavusoglu, and he will conduct foreign policy based on the political directives he receives from the president. He was very active in foreign policy as the head of Turkish intelligence and played a role in most major areas of politics.

However, given the continuous depreciation of the Turkish lira and high inflation rates, Turkish foreign policy is likely to be closely linked to the country’s economic well-being, which is highly dependent on foreign currency.

I still expect changes in Turkish foreign policy in the coming period. Onlu Hisarcıkli explained that financing the current account deficit will remain a top priority, and this may prompt Turkey to pursue more positive relations with Western allies.

He also said that in the short term, assistance from Russia and the Gulf could help address the deficit, but in the medium term access to Western financial markets would be critical.

To boost Turkey’s ailing economy, President Erdogan plans to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from July 17-19. He is expected to seek direct investment from Gulf states – initially around $10 billion, potentially rising to $30 billion – particularly in the energy, infrastructure and defense sectors, according to Reuters.

Independent political analyst Fuat Shahbazov notes that, unlike Cavusoglu, Fidan may offer some flexibility.

Shahbazov told Arab News.

Shahbazov concedes that Fidan’s portfolio in terms of West and Central Asian networks may be somewhat limited, but he thinks this won’t be a problem.

Shahbazov concluded, “I do not expect a shift in diplomatic relations with Egypt and Israel, because he is the mastermind of the operation and is likely to follow it up immediately.”

The Turkish and Egyptian presidents are scheduled to meet on July 27 in Türkiye.